AKTS

Analyst Note: AKTS (Aktis Oncology, Inc.) Date: 2026-06-13 Event Date: 2026-06-13

1. Structural Readiness

State: Context-Only (No Technical Structure Defined) Conservative Entry: — Current Price: $24.09 Extension: — ATR at Breakout: — ATR Current: 7.2% (Very High) Pivot Strength: — Cap Bucket: Small Sector: — Industry: —

Technical Assessment:

2. Thesis Layer

Primary Secular Thesis: Biotech & GLP-1 → Oncology (Tier Direct) Thesis Strength: High Confidence

AKTS is a direct beneficiary of the secular shift toward targeted radiopharmaceuticals in oncology. The company operates at the intersection of two high-conviction themes: the broader oncology market and the specific, rapidly expanding radiopharmaceutical sector. The company's role is that of a pure-play developer of miniprotein radioconjugates, positioning it as a direct exposure to the "therapeutic segment" of the radiopharmaceutical market, which management projects to reach $25 billion to $60 billion post-2030.

The thesis is reinforced by the company's strategic partnership with Eli Lilly, a major pharmaceutical entity, which validates the platform's potential to address large patient populations not currently served by existing technologies. The directness of the exposure is high; the company's entire value proposition rests on the clinical success of its lead candidates targeting Nectin-4 and B7-H3, which are validated targets in the current oncology landscape (e.g., Padcev for Nectin-4).

3. The Business

Business Model & Industry: Aktis Oncology, Inc. is a clinical-stage oncology company focused on developing targeted radiopharmaceuticals using its proprietary miniprotein radioconjugate platform. The company's business model relies on advancing its pipeline through clinical trials, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities, and generating revenue through collaboration agreements and potential future product commercialization.

Key Operational Highlights (as of 2026-06-13):

• Pipeline Progress: The company has advanced its lead product candidate, [225 Ac]Ac-AKY-1189, for Nectin-4 expressing tumors. An IND application for this candidate was cleared by the FDA in April 2025, and a multi-site Phase 1b clinical trial has commenced in the United States. Management expects preliminary results from the Part-1 dose escalation portion of this trial in the first quarter of 2027.
• Second Candidate: The company has also initiated clinical trials for [225 Ac]Ac-AKY-2519 for B7-H3 expressing tumors. INDs for both [225 Ac]Ac-AKY-2519 and [64 Cu]Cu-AKY-2519 were cleared in March 2026, with the Phase 1b trial expected to initiate mid-2026.
• Manufacturing: Management expects its manufacturing facility to be fully operational in the second half of 2026, a critical milestone for scaling clinical supply.
• Strategic Partnership: In May 2024, the company entered into a Collaboration Agreement with Eli Lilly to generate anticancer radiopharmaceuticals. The remaining transaction price of $51.6 million is expected to be recognized as revenue through 2030.
• Capital Position: The company received net proceeds of $334.4 million from its IPO (completed through March 31, 2026), providing a substantial cash runway to fund its clinical programs.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Quality Compounder (Clinical-Stage Growth) Valuation Context: The company is currently in a pre-revenue, clinical-stage phase. Forward consensus EPS estimates for FY1 and FY2 are negative (-$1.624 and -$2.278, respectively), reflecting the substantial R&D and operational costs associated with advancing a clinical-stage biotech. The "Quality Compounder" archetype here refers to the potential for the company to compound value as it successfully advances its pipeline and monetizes its technology, rather than current profitability.

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: High. The radiopharmaceutical market is identified as one of the fastest-growing categories, with a projected TAM of $25B-$60B post-2030. The Nectin-4 target is validated by the success of Padcev ($1.9B sales in 2024).
• Evidence Quality: Strong. The company has secured FDA clearance for INDs, initiated Phase 1b trials, and secured a major partnership with Eli Lilly. The financial spine shows a clear path to revenue recognition from the Lilly deal ($51.6M through 2030).
• Structural Quality: Moderate to High. The company has a clear clinical roadmap and a strong cash position ($334.4M net proceeds). However, the "Very High" ATR (7.2%) indicates significant volatility, which is typical for clinical-stage biotechs but increases execution risk.
• Setup Readiness: Low. As noted in the technical section, no structural setup is currently defined. The stock is in a context-only state, meaning the technical entry signal is absent.
• Rerating Potential: High. Successful Phase 1b data (expected Q1 2027) and the operationalization of the manufacturing facility (H2 2026) are key catalysts that could drive a re-rating of the stock.

5. Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

Invalidation Factors:

• Clinical Failure: Any negative safety or efficacy signals in the Phase 1b trials for AKY-1189 or AKY-2519 would fundamentally invalidate the thesis.
• Regulatory Delays: Significant delays in FDA clearance or trial initiation beyond management's stated expectations.
• Capital Erosion: If the $334.4M cash runway is depleted faster than expected due to cost overruns, requiring dilutive financing at unfavorable terms.

Strengthening Factors:

• Positive Dose Escalation Data: Successful dose escalation results in the Phase 1b trial (Part 1) would significantly strengthen the case.
• Manufacturing Milestone: Confirmation that the manufacturing facility is fully operational in H2 2026 as expected.
• Additional Partnerships: Securing additional collaboration agreements beyond the Lilly deal.

Evidence Gaps:

• Technical Structure: As of 2026-06-13, there is no defined technical structure (Coil) to guide entry or exit points. The "Context-Only" state means the technical setup is missing.
• Revenue Recognition Timing: While the Lilly deal provides $51.6M in revenue through 2030, the specific timing of these tranches is not detailed in the provided evidence, creating uncertainty on near-term cash flow.
• Competitive Landscape: While Padcev is mentioned as a benchmark, specific competitive dynamics or head-to-head data against other radiopharmaceuticals in the Nectin-4 space are not provided in the current evidence set.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: FDA IND clearance for lead candidate AKY-1189; Eli Lilly collaboration with $51.6M revenue potential; $334.4M IPO proceeds providing runway. Key risks: Very high volatility (7.2% ATR); clinical trial failure in Phase 1b; dilution risk if cash burn accelerates; lack of defined technical entry structure. Sizing hint: Position size should be reduced relative to volatility to account for the "Very High" ATR and binary clinical outcomes. Expected path: Management expects to initiate Phase 1b trials mid-2026 and see preliminary results in Q1 2027; manufacturing facility expected operational H2 2026. Expected horizon: 12 to 24 months for key clinical data readouts. Failure mode to watch: Negative safety signals or lack of efficacy in the Part-1 dose escalation of the Phase 1b trial.