AMPL

STRUCTURAL READINESS As of 2026-08-28, Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) presents a confirmed coil setup. The structural readiness is actionable. The conservative entry level is $14.28. The current price is $14.28, representing an extension of +0.0% from the conservative entry. The setup has fired; the breakout is confirmed. The ATR at the time of the breakout was 4.6% (High), and the current ATR remains 4.6% (High). This volatility profile sits within the historical "sweet spot" (4–6%) for structural quality, indicating a setup with sufficient momentum and liquidity characteristics to support a move, without the elevated risk associated with extreme volatility (>8%).

THE THESIS LAYER At this date, AMPL is classified as a TACTICAL, setup-led name. There is no named secular thesis attached to this specific setup in the current evidence base. The conviction for this position must be derived strictly from the quality of the technical setup (the confirmed coil) and the immediate business fundamentals reported in the recent earnings cycle, rather than a broad macro or industry-wide secular tailwind. The analysis relies on the convergence of a high-quality base breakout and strong operational execution.

THE BUSINESS Amplitude, Inc. operates as a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) provider of an AI Analytics Platform. The company helps businesses understand user behavior within digital products to improve the digital experience.

• Revenue & Growth: In the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, the company reported revenue of $101 million, an increase of 21% year-over-year. Total Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $410 million, up 22% year-over-year and $36 million from the prior quarter.
• Guidance: Management expects Q3 2026 revenue to be between $105.6 million and $108 million, representing a 21% annual growth rate at the midpoint. For the full year 2026, management raised expectations to a range of $407.2 million to $411.2 million, implying a 19% annual growth rate at the midpoint.
• Product & AI Integration: The company has integrated AI capabilities into its core platform, offering features such as AI Agents, Amplitude MCP, AI Visibility, and Automated Insights. Management notes that more than 40 AI-native companies (including Harvey, Midjourney, and Character AI) now pay over $100,000 annually. Recent enterprise agreements include Paramount, Jaguar Land Rover, and Domino's Pizza.
• Backlog & Retention: Total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) grew 35% year-over-year to $483 million, with long-term RPO up 47%. Net dollar retention was 105% on a pro forma basis.
• Strategic Acquisition: On May 1, 2026, the company acquired certain assets from Statsig, LLC, including customer contracts, order backlog, and proprietary technology, to expand its experimentation and feature management capabilities.
• Customer Base: As of December 31, 2025, the company had 4,797 paying customers, including 27 Fortune 100 companies. The number of customers with over $100,000 in ARR increased 18% year-over-year to 698, while customers with over $1.0 million in ARR grew 33% to 56.

ARCHETYPE AND CONVICTION The archetype for AMPL is a Growth Leader.

• Fit: The company demonstrates classic growth leader characteristics: accelerating revenue (21% YoY), expanding ARR, strong net dollar retention (105%), and successful expansion into the high-growth AI-native sector. The acquisition of Statsig further solidifies its position as a unified platform for analytics and experimentation.
• Valuation Context: The financial spine indicates forward consensus EPS of $0.050414 for FY1 and $0.1356 for FY2. While the company reported a net loss of $0.01 per share in Q2 2026, the path to profitability is supported by the raised full-year revenue guidance and the high quality of the recurring revenue base.
• Conviction Factors:
• Thesis Strength: Moderate (Tactical/Setup-led).
• Evidence Quality: High. Recent earnings (Aug 5, 2026) and filings (Aug 6, 2026) provide robust, point-in-time data on growth, RPO, and AI adoption.
• Structural Quality: High. The ATR of 4.6% suggests a healthy, liquid setup without excessive noise.
• Setup Readiness: Confirmed. The coil has fired, providing immediate actionable status.
• Rerating Potential: Moderate to High. The combination of AI-native positioning, enterprise expansion, and raised guidance creates a narrative for multiple expansion if the growth trajectory holds.

INVALIDATION AND GAPS

• What would Strengthen: Continued acceleration in the number of AI-native customers paying >$100k ARR; successful integration of Statsig leading to cross-sell expansion; or a further raise in full-year guidance in the next quarter.
• What would Invalidate: A significant miss on the Q3 revenue guidance (below $105.6M); a sharp decline in Net Dollar Retention below 100%; or a failure to maintain the 20%+ revenue growth rate in the face of macro headwinds.
• Gaps in Evidence: The evidence base is strong on revenue and ARR but lacks specific, detailed margin guidance or path-to-profitability timelines beyond the EPS consensus estimates. There is no explicit data on the specific revenue contribution of the Statsig acquisition in the Q2 results, only the strategic intent.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Buy Confidence: high Key evidence: Confirmed coil breakout at $14.28 with high structural ATR (4.6%); Q2 revenue of $101M up 21% YoY with raised full-year guidance to $407.2-$411.2M; Net dollar retention of 105% and RPO growth of 35% YoY to $483M. Key risks: Execution risk on integrating Statsig assets; potential slowdown in AI-native customer adoption; macro sensitivity in enterprise software spending. Rating boundary: This is rated Buy rather than Strong Buy because the setup is confirmed but the valuation context (forward EPS of $0.05) suggests the market is still pricing in a path to profitability rather than a mature cash-flow machine; a Strong Buy would require a clearer, more aggressive path to sustained profitability or a confirmed secular thesis beyond the tactical setup. It is not a Hold because the structural setup is active and the fundamentals are accelerating, not stagnating. Sizing hint: Standard position sizing for a confirmed coil with high ATR and strong fundamentals; no need for aggressive over-sizing given the "Small" cap bucket. Expected path: Management expects revenue to grow 21% in Q3 and 19% for the full year; the market should re-rate the stock as the AI-native customer base expands and the Statsig integration yields cross-sell results. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the initial setup extension to play out, contingent on maintaining the 20%+ growth trajectory. Failure mode to watch: A miss on Q3 revenue guidance below the $105.6M low end, which would signal a deceleration in the growth engine.