ARIS

Analyst Note: ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation)

Date: 2026-06-20 Current Price: $16.62

1. Structural Readiness

• Current Price: $16.62.
• Extension: Not applicable (price is in the forming phase, not extended above a breakout).
• ATR Context: Current ATR is 6.8% (Very High). This indicates elevated volatility, which increases the risk of whipsaws during the forming phase but suggests significant potential for a large move once the breakout occurs.

2. Thesis Layer

• Thesis Classification: TACTICAL / SETUP-LED.
• Macro Thesis: There is no named secular thesis attached to this name as of 2026-06-20. The investment case is not driven by a broad macro narrative (e.g., "Gold Supercycle" or "Inflation Hedge") but is strictly dependent on the quality of the technical setup and the execution of the company's specific operational milestones.
• Judgment Criteria: The conviction must be derived entirely from the structural setup quality (the forming coil) and the fundamental execution of the business plan, rather than external macro tailwinds.

3. Business Fundamentals

• Company Profile: Aris Mining Corporation is a gold producer operating multiple assets in Latin America, with a strategic focus on growth through ramp-ups and new project development.
• Business Model: The company generates revenue through the extraction and sale of gold. Its growth strategy relies on increasing production volumes from existing assets (Segovia, Marmato, Toroparu, El Silencio) and developing new projects (Soto Norte).
• Operational Status (as of 2026-06-20):
• Marmato: Construction of the new 5,000 tonne per day CIP plant is "on schedule for first gold production in Q4 of this year" (2026). This is a critical near-term catalyst.
• Toroparu: The pre-feasibility study (PFS) is "progressing well and remains on schedule for completion in the second half of 2026," with a construction decision targeted for early 2027.
• Segovia: The company is "ramping up Segovia throughout the year," targeting gold production of 265,000 to 300,000 ounces for 2026.
• El Silencio: The ramp is expected in Q4 2026, with connections to Sandra K and Providencia scheduled for Q1 2027 and Q1 2028 respectively, aiming for steady-state production from 2027 onwards.
• Soto Norte: The environmental license application is "nearing completion" and on track for submission in Q2 2026.
• Guidance: Management remains "firmly committed on track to deliver our full year '26 guidance of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces."
• Recent Performance: In the most recent quarter (Q1 2026), gold production totaled 74,000 ounces with revenue of $364 million, up 20% from Q4 2025.
• Long-term Objective: Management expects to achieve approximately 1 million ounces of annual gold production from current assets.

4. Archetype and Conviction

• Archetype: Growth Leader.
• *Fit:* The company fits the "Growth Leader" archetype due to its active ramp-up of multiple assets (Segovia, Marmato, El Silencio) and the progression of new projects (Toroparu, Soto Norte). The narrative is one of expanding capacity and moving from development to production phases.
• Valuation Context: No specific valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) are provided in the evidence base as of this date. The valuation is implied to be driven by the growth trajectory and the successful execution of the 2026 production targets.
• Conviction Stack:
• Thesis Strength: Moderate. The thesis is tactical and setup-led, lacking a broad macro tailwind, but the operational roadmap is clear.
• Evidence Quality: High. The evidence (E1-E8) consists of specific, dated management guidance from the May 2026 earnings transcript, detailing precise timelines for plant construction, PFS completion, and production targets.
• Setup Readiness: Partial. The coil is forming, which is a positive signal but not a confirmation. The setup is not yet actionable on a conservative basis.
• Rerating Potential: High, contingent on the successful Q4 2026 production start at Marmato and the completion of the Segovia ramp.

5. Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

• Gaps in Evidence:
• Valuation Metrics: No current P/E, EV/EBITDA, or cash flow multiples are available to assess if the $16.62 price is rich or cheap relative to the 2026 guidance.
• Cost Structure: No specific AISC (All-In Sustaining Costs) data is provided for 2026, which is critical for a gold producer's margin analysis.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Management confirmed Marmato plant construction is on schedule for Q4 2026 production; Segovia ramp targeting 265k-300k ounces for 2026; full year 2026 guidance of 300k-350k ounces remains on track. Key risks: Very high ATR (6.8%) indicates elevated volatility and potential for false breakouts; technical setup is "forming" and not yet confirmed; no named secular thesis to support the tactical setup. Sizing hint: Position size should be reduced relative to confirmed breakouts due to the "forming" state and high volatility; treat as a partial position until breakout confirmation. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months, aligned with the Q4 2026 production milestone and the completion of the current coil structure.