AUNA

Analyst Note: AUNA (Auna S.A.)

Date: 2026-06-13 Current Price: 5.13

1. Structural Readiness

State: Forming Conservative Entry: — (Awaiting confirmed breakout) Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: — (Not actionable on setup alone) Current Price: 5.13 Extension: — (Price is not currently extended relative to a breakout level as the breakout has not occurred) ATR Context: Current ATR is 5.3% (High). This indicates elevated volatility, which is consistent with the "High" bucket (4–6%) often seen in growth leaders during accumulation phases.

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: Tactical / Setup-Led Macro Thesis: None named at this date. Analysis: This is a tactical, setup-led name. There is no named secular macro thesis attached to AUNA as of 2026-06-13. The investment case must be judged strictly on the quality of the technical setup (the forming coil) and the underlying business fundamentals provided in the evidence block. No external macro drivers (e.g., specific regulatory shifts or currency devaluations) are currently being leveraged to construct a thesis; the focus remains on the company's execution and structural positioning.

3. The Business

Company Overview: Auna S.A. operates as a healthcare services provider, overseeing a network of hospitals and clinics across Mexico, Peru, and Colombia. The company offers a mix of acute care services, prepaid medical programs, and dental/vision insurance plans. Business Model & Segments:

Financial Performance (Q1 2026):

• Mexico: The company delivers healthcare services with a revenue mix heavily weighted toward third-party insurance and institutional providers (90.7% of payments), with only 9.3% coming from out-of-pocket patients. Recent earnings (2026-05-20) highlight a strong recovery in Mexico, with revenues increasing 8% driven by new preferred provider tier status with two major payers at Doctors Hospital, improved economics of the ISSSTELEON contract, and expanded B2B service packages.
• Peru: The business is vertically integrated. In 2025, 51.8% of payments came from third-party insurance/institutional providers, 24.8% from the Oncosalud segment, and 23.4% from out-of-pocket patients. The segment saw healthcare plan memberships grow 6%, with oncology plans growing 3%. OncoSalud revenues specifically grew 12%, driven by price increases and a new group policy for the nation's judiciary (20,000 employees).
• Colombia: This segment is highly dependent on third-party insurance, with 96.5% of payments coming from institutional providers (including ADRES transfers) and only 3.5% out-of-pocket. The company reports having largely resolved issues with intervened payers through risk-sharing agreements, leading to more predictable cash flow.
• Topline: Grew 10% FXN (Foreign Exchange Neutral), with revenue increases across all segments.
• Cash Flow: Free cash flow increased 2.6x year-over-year to PEN 152 million, driven by a 45% increase in pretax operating cash flow.
• Collections: Average collection days vary significantly by market: 49 days in Mexico, 114 days in Peru, and 165 days in Colombia.
• Guidance: Management reaffirmed annual revenue and EBITDA guidance on 2026-05-20, citing significant progress in the growth plan and strong underlying fundamentals.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Growth Leader Fit Analysis: AUNA fits the Growth Leader archetype due to its double-digit revenue growth (10% FXN), expanding free cash flow (2.6x increase), and successful execution of strategic initiatives (new payer contracts, vertical integration in Peru). The company is demonstrating the ability to navigate complex regulatory environments (Colombia's ADRES, Mexico's ISSSTELEON) while expanding market share. Valuation Context: The financial spine indicates a forward consensus EPS of 2.89 for FY1 and 3.42 for FY2. While the absolute P/E ratio is not explicitly calculated in the evidence, the growth trajectory supports a premium valuation relative to the broader Latin American healthcare sector. Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Low (Tactical/Setup-led, no macro thesis).
• Evidence Quality: High. Multiple primary sources (earnings transcripts, SEC filings) confirm revenue growth, margin expansion, and cash flow improvement.
• Structural Quality: Moderate to High. The business model is diversified across three countries with distinct revenue mixes, reducing single-market dependency.
• Rerating Potential: Moderate. The reaffirmation of guidance and strong cash flow generation provide a foundation for multiple expansion if the breakout occurs.

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Strengthen the Case:

• Further evidence of collection day improvements, particularly in Colombia (currently 165 days) and Peru (114 days), which would further boost free cash flow conversion.
• Continued expansion of B2B contracts or new payer agreements in Mexico and Colombia.

What Would Invalidate the Case:

• A deterioration in the "risk-sharing" agreements in Colombia or a return to intervened payer issues.
• A significant widening of collection days beyond current levels, indicating liquidity stress.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Margin Details: While EBITDA guidance is reaffirmed, specific margin percentages or operating leverage details for Q1 2026 are not explicitly quantified in the provided text.
• Capex/Lead Times: No specific data on capital expenditure plans or lead times for new facility openings is available in the current evidence set.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Q1 2026 revenue grew 10% FXN with increases across all segments; Free cash flow increased 2.6x YoY to PEN 152 million; Management reaffirmed annual revenue and EBITDA guidance citing strong fundamentals. Key risks: High volatility (5.3% ATR) increases execution risk for entry; Collection days in Colombia (165 days) and Peru (114 days) remain elevated compared to Mexico (49 days); Setup is in "Forming" state with no confirmed breakout yet. Sizing hint: Position size should be conservative given the "Forming" status and high ATR; wait for confirmed breakout before adding size. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the setup to resolve (breakout or invalidation).