AYX

ANALYST NOTE: Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) Date: 2026-06-13 Current Price: $48.26

1. Structural Readiness

State: Context-only Conservative Entry: — (Awaiting confirmed breakout) Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: — (Not actionable on setup alone) Breakout Level: — Current Price: $48.26 Extension: — ATR Current: 0.2% (Sub-threshold)

Analysis:

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: Tactical / Setup-Led Macro Thesis: None named at this date.

This is a tactical, setup-led name. There is no named secular macro thesis attached to this specific setup as of 2026-06-13. The conviction must be derived strictly from the quality of the technical setup (which is currently forming) and the underlying business fundamentals. No external macro narrative should be invented to support the position.

3. Business Overview

Company: Alteryx, Inc. Industry: Software / Analytic Process Automation (APA) Business Model: Provider of analytic process automation solutions, serving global markets across Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and other international regions.

Core Offerings (as of 2026-06-12):

• Alteryx Designer: Facilitates data profiling, preparation, blending, analytics, data science workflows, and process automation.
• Alteryx Server: A web-based solution for managing, automating, and governing analytical processes.
• Alteryx Promote: Enables data scientists to build, manage, monitor, and deploy predictive models into real-time production.
• Cloud-Native Suite: Includes Alteryx Designer Cloud (browser-accessible), Alteryx Machine Learning (automated model construction), Alteryx Auto Insights (actionable business insights), and Alteryx Trifacta (collaborative data profiling and pipeline).
• Services: Technical support, instructional services, and customer care.

Customer Base & Penetration: The company serves a diverse array of industries including retail, financial services, healthcare, public sector, and technology.

• Global 2000 Penetration: 49% (up 3 points from Q3 of the prior year).
• Customer Growth: The count of customers with ARR >$250,000 grew 20% year-over-year to 706. The count of customers with ARR >$1,000,000 increased over 30% year-over-year.
• Enterprise Agreements (ELAs): In Q3 (of the last reported period), the number of ELAs sold more than doubled versus the same quarter last year.

Financial Context (Source: 2023-11-06 Earnings Transcript):

• ARR: $914 million (up 21% YoY).
• ARR Guidance: Expected range of $942 million to $948 million (13-14% YoY growth).
• GAAP Revenue Guidance (FY 2023): Increased to $953 million to $959 million (11-12% YoY growth).
• Non-GAAP Operating Profit: Expected $100 million to $106 million (improvement from prior outlook of $70-$80 million).

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Growth Leader Fit: The company demonstrates characteristics of a Growth Leader through its expanding ARR, increasing penetration in the Global 2000, and significant growth in high-value customer segments (>$1M ARR). The doubling of ELAs sold suggests strong enterprise adoption and stickiness.

Valuation & Financial Spine:

• Forward Consensus EPS: FY1 of 0, FY2 of 0.
• Context: The financial spine indicates a "complete" coverage status but shows zero forward EPS consensus. This suggests the market is currently pricing the company based on revenue growth and future profitability expectations rather than current earnings.

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Low (No named macro thesis; purely tactical).
• Evidence Quality: Moderate. Strong historical growth metrics (ARR, customer count) are available from 2023, but the 2026 financial spine shows zero EPS, creating a gap in current profitability visibility.
• Structural Quality: Weak. The ATR is sub-threshold (0.2%), indicating low volatility and a lack of immediate momentum. The setup is "forming," not "confirmed."
• Setup Readiness: Low. The coil is forming; a breakout has not fired.
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the confirmation of the breakout and the resolution of the zero-EPS consensus.

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

Invalidation:

• Continued stagnation in ARR growth or a decline in Global 2000 penetration would weaken the fundamental thesis.

Strengthening Factors:

• A confirmed breakout above the forming coil resistance with volume expansion.
• Management guidance indicating a path to positive EPS (addressing the zero consensus).
• Continued acceleration in ELA sales or high-value customer growth.

Evidence Gaps:

• Current Profitability: The financial spine shows FY1 and FY2 consensus EPS of 0. There is no evidence in the provided data regarding the company's current path to profitability or recent margin expansion post-2023.
• 2026 Specifics: While the company profile is current (2026-06-12), the specific financial performance for 2024-2026 is not detailed in the evidence block beyond the 2023 transcript. The "missing evidence" field is empty, but the lack of recent earnings data (post-2023) in the provided text is a material gap for a 2026 analysis.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Hold Confidence: low Key evidence: 1) ARR growth of 21% YoY and 49% Global 2000 penetration as of late 2023; 2) 20% growth in $250k+ ARR customers and 30%+ growth in $1M+ ARR customers; 3) Doubling of ELAs sold in Q3. Sizing hint: Position size should be minimal or zero until a confirmed breakout occurs and profitability visibility improves. Expected path: Management expectations for continued ARR growth and margin improvement must materialize to shift the consensus from zero EPS to positive earnings, potentially triggering a technical breakout. Expected horizon: Indefinite until technical confirmation or fundamental catalyst.