BAP

ANALYST NOTE: BAP (Credicorp Ltd.) Date: 2026-06-13 Event Date: 2026-06-13

1. Structural Readiness

• State: Actionable (Forming Coil)
• Conservative Entry: Not yet defined (awaiting confirmed breakout close).
• Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: Not applicable for conservative sizing; current price represents a "forming" state where the market is testing the upper boundary of the coil.
• Breakout Level: Not yet fired.
• Current Price: 382.76.
• Extension: Not applicable (price is within the coil range, not extended above resistance).
• ATR Context: Current ATR is 4.2% (High). This falls within the historical "sweet spot" (4–6%) for structural quality, suggesting sufficient volatility to support a move without the extreme risk associated with >8% ATR environments.

2. Thesis Layer

As of 2026-06-13, BAP is classified as a TACTICAL, setup-led name. There is no named secular thesis attached to this specific setup in the current evidence base. The investment case must be judged strictly on the quality of the price structure (the forming coil) combined with the underlying business fundamentals provided in the recent earnings and filings. We do not invent a macro thesis; we evaluate the setup's readiness to capture value based on the company's operational execution and the structural price action.

3. Business Overview

Credicorp Ltd. is a financial services holding company operating predominantly in Peru, with a diversified footprint across four lines of business: Universal Banking, Microfinance, Insurance & Pensions, and Investment Management & Advisory (Evidence E9, E13).

• Universal Banking & Microfinance: The core engine includes BCP (Universal Banking) and Mibanco (Microfinance). Mibanco is leveraging proprietary data and digital underwriting to serve the underbanked, having disbursed over 5.7 million loans in 2026 (Evidence E5). Mibanco reported robust profitability of 21.7% for the quarter (Evidence E8).
• Digital Expansion: The company's digital platform, Yape, continues to expand its user base with 16.4 million monthly active users, shifting focus toward deeper engagement and monetization (Evidence E4).
• Macro Exposure: The business is heavily correlated with the Peruvian mining sector, which represented 14.4% of GDP in 2025 and accounted for 66% of total exports (Evidence E11, E12). Management notes that copper is trading around $66.5 per pound, supporting favorable export prices and double-digit growth in private investment indicators (Evidence E6).
• Guidance & Performance: Management expects total loan book growth of 8.5% (10.5% FX neutral) for the period (Evidence E1). Cost of risk is expected to approach the lower end of guidance, with risk-adjusted NIM remaining within targets (Evidence E3). The company reaffirmed an ROE guidance of approximately 19.5% for 2026, with management expressing confidence in achieving results on the upper side of this level due to Q1 strength (Evidence E7).

4. Archetype and Conviction

• Archetype: Quality Compounder.
• Fit: The company demonstrates consistent profitability (21.7% ROE at Mibanco), disciplined cost management (cost of risk trending lower), and a clear path to organic growth (8.5% loan book expansion). The digital pivot (Yape) and the scale of the microfinance book (5.7M loans) provide a durable competitive moat.
• Valuation Context: The financial spine indicates a forward consensus EPS of 100.87 for FY1 and 113.34 for FY2 (Evidence E19). While the specific P/E multiple is not provided in the evidence, the implied growth in earnings combined with the 19.5% ROE guidance suggests a valuation that rewards quality execution.
• Conviction Stack:
• Thesis Strength: Moderate (Tactical/Setup-led, no external macro thesis).
• Evidence Quality: High. Recent earnings (May 2026) and filings (April 2026) provide granular data on loan growth, digital adoption, and macro correlations.
• Structural Quality: High. The 4.2% ATR indicates a healthy volatility environment for a breakout, and the "forming" coil suggests accumulation.
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the confirmation of the breakout and the realization of the upper-end ROE guidance.

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

• What Would Strengthen: A confirmed close above the resistance level (breakout) accompanied by higher-than-expected volume. Continued outperformance in the digital segment (Yape) or a sustained rise in copper prices above $66.5 would reinforce the macro tailwinds.
• Gaps in Evidence:
• Breakout Level: The specific resistance level that must be breached for a "confirmed" setup is not quantified.
• Sector/Industry Labels: The specific sector and industry classifications are missing from the provided data (though clearly Financials/Financial Services).

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Buy Confidence: medium Key evidence: Mibanco's 21.7% quarterly profitability and 5.7 million loans disbursed in 2026; Management's reaffirmed 19.5% ROE guidance with confidence in upper-end results; Yape's 16.4 million MAU base indicating strong digital monetization potential. Key risks: Peruvian macroeconomic slowdown impacting loan demand; cost of risk rising above the lower end of guidance; failure of the price structure to break out above resistance. Sizing hint: Position size should reflect the "forming" nature of the setup; allocate based on the 4.2% ATR volatility profile, treating the current price as a partial entry signal pending confirmation. Expected path: Management expects loan book growth of 8.5% and cost of risk to remain low; if the breakout fires, the stock should re-rate toward the implied earnings growth of FY1/FY2. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the setup to resolve into a confirmed breakout or invalidation.