CAAP

Analyst Note: CAAP (Corporación América Airports S.A.)

Date: 2026-06-13 Current Price: $27.54

1. Structural Readiness

Conservative Entry: — (Awaiting breakout confirmation) Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: — (Contextual observation only) Breakout Level: — (Pending price action above the forming structure) Extension: — ATR Current: 4.0% (Productive / High)

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: Tactical / Setup-Led Macro Thesis: None named at this date. Analysis: As of 2026-06-13, CAAP is not being analyzed through a specific secular macro lens (e.g., "Global Travel Rebound" or "Emerging Market Infrastructure Boom"). The investment case is strictly tactical and setup-led. The conviction must be derived entirely from the quality of the technical structure (the forming coil) and the immediate business fundamentals reported in the most recent earnings cycle. No external macro narrative should be invented to support the thesis; the trade is predicated on the company's ability to execute its stated operational plans and the market's reaction to the structural setup.

3. Business Overview

Company Profile: Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP) engages in the acquisition, development, and management of airport concessions. The company operates as a holding entity with subsidiaries managing specific airport assets across multiple jurisdictions. Business Model: The core business relies on concession rights granted by governments. Revenue is generated through aeronautical fees (passenger and cargo) and commercial revenues (retail, parking, fuel, VIP lounges). The business model is capital intensive, requiring mandatory investment plans under concession agreements to maintain and expand infrastructure. Industry & Segments: The company operates in the Airport Infrastructure industry. As of the March 2026 filing, the company identifies six reportable segments: Argentina, Italy, Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador, and Armenia. Key Operational Data (Source: Earnings Transcript 2026-05-13):

• Traffic Growth: Passenger traffic increased 7% year-over-year, driven by international travel, particularly in Argentina where additional routes and summer demand supported recovery.
• Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITDA ex-IFRIC 12 rose 26% to $196 million, with margins expanding 2.3 percentage points.
• Commercial Revenue: Commercial revenues surged 21%, outpacing traffic growth, driven by fuel, cargo, and retail (duty-free, F&B, parking).
• Concession Stability: Management confirmed the extension of a major concession by 35 years (to 2067) and a new $425 million investment program.
• Asset Concentration: The Ministro Pistarini International Airport (Ezeiza) in Argentina remains a critical asset, generating $409.0 million (20.8% of consolidated revenue) in the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
• Expansion: Management noted the recent award of two new concessions (Luanda, Angola; Baghdad, Iraq) and is evaluating "a handful of other opportunities" executable in the next 6 to 12 months.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Quality Compounder Rationale: The name fits the "Quality Compounder" archetype due to the combination of stable, long-duration concession rights, expanding margins, and a disciplined approach to capital allocation (investment plans). The 26% EBITDA growth and 21% commercial revenue growth demonstrate an ability to leverage traffic recovery into superior profitability, a hallmark of high-quality infrastructure operators. Valuation Context: The financial spine indicates a forward consensus EPS of $2.03 for FY1 and $2.36 for FY2. This implies a valuation multiple that reflects the growth trajectory, though specific P/E ratios are not provided in the evidence block. Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Moderate (Tactical, no macro tailwinds named).
• Evidence Quality: High (Recent earnings transcript and 2025 10-K provide granular, PIT-safe data).
• Structural Quality: High (Strong margin expansion, diversified geographic segments, long concession terms).
• Setup Readiness: Partial (Forming coil; requires breakout confirmation).
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the successful execution of the $425M investment program and the realization of the new concessions in Angola and Iraq.

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Strengthen the Case:

• Confirmation of the breakout above the forming coil structure (price action).
• Further confirmation of the "handful of other opportunities" materializing within the 6-12 month window.
• Continued margin expansion in the next quarterly report.
• Successful implementation of the dividend policy mentioned in the May 2026 transcript.

What Would Invalidate the Case:

• Deterioration in passenger traffic in key markets (e.g., Argentina) that reverses the 7% growth trend.
• Regulatory changes in concession terms that threaten the 35-year extension or investment mandates.

Evidence Gaps:

• Dividend Policy Details: While a policy is "considered," the specific yield, payout ratio, or timeline has not been disclosed.
• Capex Timing: The $425 million investment program is confirmed, but the specific annual spend schedule is not detailed in the provided evidence.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Buy Confidence: medium Key evidence: Adjusted EBITDA up 26% to $196 million with margin expansion; Passenger traffic up 7% YoY with strong international recovery; Concession extended 35 years to 2067 with $425M investment program confirmed. Key risks: Forming coil has not yet broken out; Heavy reliance on Argentine market (Ezeiza airport); Execution risk on new concessions in Angola and Iraq; Regulatory changes in concession terms. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for setup confirmation and initial thesis validation.