CCBG

ANALYST NOTE: CCBG (Capital City Bank Group, Inc.) Date: 2026-06-13 Event Date: 2026-06-13

1. Structural Readiness

Setup State: Actionable (Forming Coil)

Technical Configuration:

• Current Price: $47.48
• Conservative Entry: Not yet defined (awaiting confirmed breakout).
• Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: Not applicable for conservative sizing; price is currently holding within the forming structure.
• Breakout Level: Not yet triggered.
• Extension: Not applicable (price has not extended beyond the breakout level).
• ATR Context: Current ATR is 2.7% (productive). This sits within the historical "productive" range, suggesting sufficient volatility for position sizing without the elevated risk of the "very high" (6–8%) or "extreme" (>8%) buckets.

Interpretation:

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Classification: TACTICAL / Setup-Led Secular Exposure: None named.

There is no named macro or secular thesis attached to CCBG as of this date. The investment case is strictly setup-led, relying on the quality of the price structure and the underlying business fundamentals rather than a broad thematic tailwind. The conviction must be derived entirely from the structural integrity of the price action and the strength of the Q1 2026 financials, without the benefit of a pre-existing narrative.

3. Business Overview

Company: Capital City Bank Group, Inc. (CCBG) Industry: Financial Services / Regional Banking Business Model: CCBG operates as a financial holding company providing a comprehensive array of financial services to individual consumers and businesses across the Southeast.

Operational Footprint (as of Q1 2026):

• Geography: The company is heavily concentrated in the Southeast, with approximately 81% of revenue derived from Florida market areas, 17% from Georgia, and 2% from other areas (Evidence E9).
• Physical Presence: The bank operates 62 full-service offices and 107 ATMs/ITMs across Florida, Georgia, and Alabama (Evidence E1).
• Mortgage Banking: Through its subsidiary, Capital City Home Loans, LLC (CCHL), the firm maintains 27 additional offices in the Southeast (Evidence E1).
• Workforce: Approximately 902 full-time associates and 25 part-time associates (Evidence E13).

Revenue Drivers & Financials (Q1 2026):

• Net Interest Income (NII): Tax-equivalent NII for Q1 2026 totaled $42.9 million, a slight decrease from $43.4 million in Q4 2025 but an increase from $41.6 million in Q1 2025 (Evidence E4).
• Deposit Base: Average total deposits were $3.691 billion in Q1 2026, representing a 1.2% increase over Q4 2025 and a 0.7% increase over Q1 2025 (Evidence E5).
• Loan Book: Average loans held for investment (HFI) decreased by $29.8 million (1.16%) from Q4 2025 and $127.6 million (4.8%) from Q1 2025 (Evidence E6).
• Capitalization: The bank was "well-capitalized" at March 31, 2026, with a total risk-based capital ratio of 21.62% and a tangible common equity ratio of 10.79% (Evidence E3).
• Asset Management: Trust assets under discretionary management exceeded $1.326 billion, with total assets under administration exceeding $1.541 billion as of December 31, 2025 (Evidence E10, E11).

Service Scope: The firm offers traditional deposit/credit services, mortgage banking, asset management, trust, merchant services, and securities brokerage. Commercial offerings include financing for business properties, equipment, and inventory, as well as treasury management and letters of credit (Evidence E7, E15). Consumer offerings include retail loans, credit cards, and online banking (Evidence E16, E19).

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Quality Compounder Rationale: CCBG fits the Quality Compounder archetype based on its capital strength, diversified revenue streams, and stable deposit growth despite a slight contraction in the loan book.

• Capital Strength: The tangible common equity ratio of 10.79% and total risk-based capital ratio of 21.62% (Evidence E3) indicate a robust balance sheet capable of withstanding economic headwinds.
• Revenue Stability: The slight dip in NII from Q4 to Q1 2026 is offset by the year-over-year growth, and the deposit base continues to expand, suggesting sticky customer relationships (Evidence E4, E5).
• Diversification: With significant non-interest income potential from asset management ($1.541B AUA) and a strong mortgage banking arm, the company is not solely reliant on net interest income (Evidence E2, E11).

Valuation & Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Low (Tactical only).
• Evidence Quality: High. The Q1 2026 filing provides granular data on capital ratios, deposit growth, and loan contraction.
• Structural Quality: Moderate to High. The setup is "forming" with a productive ATR of 2.7%. The price is holding above the structural support, but the breakout is pending.
• Setup Readiness: Partial. The coil is forming, which is a positive signal but requires a confirmed breakout to be actionable.
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the resolution of the loan book contraction (down 4.8% YoY) and the ability to grow NII in subsequent quarters.

Financial Spine Context: Forward consensus EPS is projected at $3.61 for FY1 and $3.63 for FY2 (Evidence E22). This implies a relatively flat earnings trajectory in the near term, consistent with the "Quality Compounder" profile of steady, non-explosive growth rather than a high-growth cyclical recovery.

5. Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

Invalidation Triggers:

• Fundamental: A significant deterioration in the tangible common equity ratio below regulatory "well-capitalized" thresholds or a sharp acceleration in loan delinquencies (not currently evidenced).

Strengtheners:

• Technical: A confirmed breakout close above the resistance level of the forming coil.
• Fundamental: Reversal of the loan book contraction (Evidence E6) and a return to double-digit deposit growth.
• Management: Guidance indicating an expansion of the loan book or NII in the next quarter.

Evidence Gaps:

• Profitability Metrics: While NII is provided, specific Net Income, Return on Equity (ROE), or Return on Assets (ROA) figures for Q1 2026 are not explicitly detailed in the provided evidence block, limiting a full profitability assessment.
• Credit Quality: No specific data on Non-Performing Assets (NPA) or Net Charge-Offs (NCO) ratios is available in the evidence set.
• Management Guidance: No forward-looking statements or specific guidance for FY2026/2027 are included in the provided filings, only historical data.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key risks: Loan book contraction of 4.8% YoY; lack of named secular thesis; pending breakout confirmation required for entry; flat forward EPS consensus ($3.61 to $3.63). Sizing hint: Position size should be conservative given the "forming" status; wait for breakout confirmation to increase sizing. Expected path: Management expectations for continued deposit growth and capital maintenance; structural implication of a potential breakout if loan book stabilizes. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for structural resolution (breakout or invalidation).