CDE

ANALYST NOTE: COEUR MINING, INC. (CDE) DATE: 2026-06-13

1. Structural Readiness

Current State: Forming

• Conservative Entry: $25.77
• Current Price: $17.51
• Extension: -32.1% vs. conservative entry
• Breakout Level: $25.77 (Conservative) / $17.51 (Current Price is below this, awaiting confirmation)
• ATR Context: ATR at breakout was 5.3% (High structural quality). Current ATR is 6.9% (Very High volatility).

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Classification: Tactical / Setup-Led Macro Thesis Status: None Named

As of 2026-06-13, there is no named secular thesis driving this specific setup. This is a tactical, setup-led name. The conviction must be derived strictly from the quality of the structural setup (the Coil formation) and the underlying business fundamentals disclosed in recent filings. No macro narrative (e.g., "silver supercycle" or "gold inflation hedge") is being applied as a primary driver here; the trade is predicated on the structural re-rating of the equity following the operational inflection points described in the evidence.

3. Business Overview

Company Profile: Coeur Mining, Inc. is a U.S.-based, well-diversified precious metals producer with seven wholly-owned North American operations. Operations: The company operates mines in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, including:

• New Afton (BC, Canada): Gold-Copper mine.
• Rainy River (ON, Canada): Gold-Silver mine.
• Las Chispas (Sonora, Mexico): Silver-Gold mine.
• Palmarejo (Chihuahua, Mexico): Gold-Silver mine.
• Rochester (Nevada, USA): Silver-Gold mine.
• Kensington (Alaska, USA): Gold mine.
• Wharf (South Dakota, USA): Gold mine.

Business Model & Guidance (Source: Earnings Transcript 2026-05-07 & SEC Filings 2026-05-06):

• Production Profile: Management expects to produce approximately 750,000 ounces of gold, over 20 million ounces of silver, and nearly 60 million pounds of copper in 2026.
• Geographic Mix: 100% of 2026 production is expected to come from North America, with approximately 70% of revenues derived from the U.S. and Canada.
• Revenue Composition: In Q1 2026, Gold, Silver, and Copper represented 56%, 42%, and 2% of sales revenue, respectively.
• Financial Expectations: Management reaffirmed guidance for 2026, projecting more than $3 billion of EBITDA and $2 billion of free cash flow. This projection assumes budget prices and includes only nine months and 11 days of contributions from the New Afton and Rainy River assets.
• Capital Allocation: The Board has approved an inaugural dividend policy of $0.02 per share semiannually (payments expected in Q2 and Q4 2026) and a $750 million share repurchase program.
• Operational Milestones: The company is targeting 16,000 tons-per-day throughput by the end of Q2 2026. New Afton's K-Zone technical reports (filed 2026-05-06) indicate an initial resource of 47.6 million tonnes containing 715,000 ounces of gold.

4. Archetype and Conviction Analysis

Archetype: Margin Inflector Rationale: The setup fits the "Margin Inflector" archetype due to the structural shift in the company's cost profile and revenue mix driven by the integration of New Afton and Rainy River.

• Evidence of Inflection: Management explicitly states that the two new Canadian operations are the main drivers behind an expected 80% increase in 2026 gold production compared to the prior year, while simultaneously introducing copper into the mix and driving down the overall cost profile (E7).
• Valuation & Financials: The financial spine indicates a forward consensus EPS of $1.751 for FY1 and $1.962 for FY2. The company is transitioning from a pure-play silver/gold producer to a diversified producer with significant copper exposure, supported by a robust cash flow profile ($2B FCF expected).
• Conviction Stack:
• Thesis Strength: Low (Tactical only, no macro thesis).
• Evidence Quality: High. Multiple primary sources (earnings, SEC filings) confirm production targets, cost reductions, and capital return programs.
• Structural Quality: High. The ATR at breakout (5.3%) was in the "High" sweet spot, indicating a robust structural move potential.
• Setup Readiness: Partial. The coil is "Forming." The price is currently 32% below the conservative entry, suggesting the market is digesting the recent operational news or waiting for a catalyst to push the price through the $25.77 resistance.
• Rerating Potential: Moderate to High. The combination of a new dividend, a massive buyback program, and a projected $2B FCF run-rate suggests a fundamental re-rating is possible if the price can clear the consolidation range.

ATR Context: The current ATR of 6.9% is "Very High," indicating elevated volatility. This suggests that while the setup is structurally sound, the path to the breakout level ($25.77) may be volatile. The "High" ATR at the breakout point (5.3%) historically correlates with strong structural moves, but the current "Very High" ATR requires careful position sizing.

5. Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

Invalidation:

• Fundamental Deterioration: A significant miss on the 2026 production guidance (e.g., failure to reach the 750k oz gold target) or a failure to execute the $750M buyback program would weaken the margin inflector thesis.

Strengtheners:

• Price Action: A confirmed close above $25.77 would transition the setup to "Confirmed-Active," validating the breakout.
• Operational Execution: Confirmation that the 16,000 tons-per-day throughput target is met by end of Q2 2026 (E3) would reinforce the margin inflector narrative.
• Capital Returns: Execution of the inaugural dividend payment in Q2 2026 and active buybacks would validate the capital allocation strategy.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Specific Cost Metrics: While management mentions a "driving down" of the cost profile, specific all-in sustaining cost (AISC) figures for the full year 2026 are not explicitly detailed in the provided evidence beyond the general guidance.
• Copper Price Sensitivity: The evidence notes copper is a new revenue driver (2% of Q1 sales), but the specific sensitivity of the $3B EBITDA target to copper price fluctuations is not quantified in the provided text.
• Regulatory Risks: While environmental compliance costs are estimated ($18.1M-$28.1M), specific regulatory hurdles for the Canadian operations (New Afton/Rainy River) post-acquisition are not detailed in the current evidence set.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Management guidance for $2B FCF and $3B EBITDA in 2026; 80% expected increase in gold production driven by new Canadian assets; $750M buyback program and inaugural dividend policy. Key risks: Price is 32% below conservative entry with no breakout signal; Very High ATR (6.9%) indicates elevated volatility and potential for whipsaw; Setup is "Forming" and not yet actionable on a breakout basis. Sizing hint: Position size should be reduced relative to a confirmed breakout setup due to the "Forming" state and high current volatility; treat as a watch-list hold until price clears $25.77. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for a potential breakout confirmation or invalidation.