EDR

ANALYST NOTE: EDR (Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc.) Date: 2026-06-13 Current Price: $29.25

1. Structural Readiness

Conservative Entry: Not yet defined (awaiting breakout confirmation) Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: $29.25 (Current Price) Breakout Level: Pending Extension: Not applicable (price has not extended from a confirmed breakout) ATR Current: 3.0% (Productive)

Setup Analysis:

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Classification: TACTICAL / Setup-Led Secular Exposure: None named at this date.

This is a tactical, setup-led name. There is no named macro or secular thesis attached to EDR in the current evidence base for 2026-06-13. The conviction must be derived strictly from the quality of the structural setup (the forming coil) and the underlying business fundamentals. We do not invent a thesis; we judge the name on its ability to execute its business model and the technical readiness of the price action.

3. Business Overview

Company: Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. (EDR) Industry: Entertainment, Sports, and Content Services Business Model: EDR operates as a global powerhouse with a diversified model structured around three core segments: Owned Sports Properties, Events/Experiences/Rights, and Representation.

Operational Evidence (as of 2026-06-13):

• Owned Sports Properties: The company maintains a robust portfolio including the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), Professional Bull Riders (PBR), Euroleague Basketball, and Diamond Baseball Holdings. Management noted in prior earnings (2024-02-28) that PBR expanded to 10 teams for the 2024 season, including a first-ever team in Brooklyn.
• Representation & Agency: The agency segment represents a diverse roster of talent across entertainment, sports, and fashion. Evidence from 2024-02-28 indicates WME clients were involved in six of the top 10 grossing domestic films, including *Oppenheimer*. The agency also negotiated over $1.1 billion in NFL contracts during the year, with over $700 million guaranteed.
• Events & Rights: The company delivers services for live gatherings, including major sporting competitions and festivals. IMG ARENA has extended partnerships with Roland-Garros and Wimbledon, doubling its soccer data portfolio to over 23,000 annual events.
• Technology & Betting: EDR has expanded its footprint in the sports betting sector. OpenBet (a partner) commenced a long-term partnership with Finland's Veikkaus. Management cited that U.S. sports betting revenue grew 44% year-over-year in 2023, with 37 states and D.C. now having legal operations.
• Academy & Content: The IMG Academy division is actively involved in academic and athletic development and the creation of sports video content.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Growth Leader Fit: The name fits the "Growth Leader" archetype due to its diversified revenue streams across high-growth sectors (sports betting, live events, and premium content) and its history of expanding average deal values (AAV).

Valuation & Financial Context:

• Financial Spine: Forward consensus EPS is projected at $2.91676 for FY1 and $2.98375 for FY2.
• Valuation Context: At a current price of $29.25, the stock trades at approximately 10x FY1 consensus EPS. This implies a valuation that is relatively compressed for a company with the described growth profile and market dominance, suggesting potential for rerating if the "Growth Leader" narrative is re-validated by the market.

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Low (Tactical/Setup-led only).
• Evidence Quality: High (Strong historical data on deal volume, AAV growth, and market expansion).
• Structural Quality: Moderate (Forming coil indicates accumulation, but lacks the confirmation of a breakout).
• Setup Readiness: Partial (Price is holding, but entry is not yet defined).
• Rerating Potential: Moderate to High (Given the compressed valuation relative to forward earnings and the dominant market position).

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Invalidate:

• A significant deterioration in the sports betting regulatory landscape or a sharp decline in live event attendance that contradicts the "strength in live events" narrative.

What Would Strengthen:

• A confirmed breakout above the resistance level (breakout level) with volume, confirming the "Growth Leader" momentum.
• Management guidance confirming the continuation of the >1.4x AAV growth trend or further expansion of the PBR and IMG ARENA portfolios.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Missing Evidence: There is no specific evidence regarding the *current* (2026) quarterly performance or the specific *current* management guidance for the 2026 fiscal year. The financial spine provides forward consensus, but we lack the specific "sourceDate" management expectations for the immediate future beyond the 2024-02-28 transcript data.
• Missing Evidence: No specific data on the current debt load or interest expense coverage ratios as of 2026-06-13.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Forming coil structure with price holding above support; Forward consensus EPS of ~$2.92 suggests reasonable valuation at $29.25; Diversified revenue streams in high-growth sectors (sports betting, live events). Key risks: Setup is not yet confirmed (no breakout fired); Lack of current 2026 management guidance; Potential regulatory headwinds in sports betting; Market volatility could invalidate the forming structure. Sizing hint: Position size should be conservative given the "forming" status; treat as a partial allocation pending breakout confirmation. Expected path: Price consolidates within the forming range; if momentum builds, a breakout above resistance is the next structural step; management expectations for continued AAV growth and international expansion support the thesis. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for a potential breakout or structural invalidation.