EE

Analyst Note: EE (Excelerate Energy, Inc.)

Date: 2026-06-13 Subject: Structural Setup and Business Fundamentals Review

1. Structural Readiness

• Conservative Entry: $33.24
• Current Price: $34.56
• Extension: +4.0% above conservative entry.
• Breakout Level: The breakout level is effectively the entry trigger at $33.24.
• Volatility Context:
• ATR at Breakout: 3.0% (Productive).
• Current ATR: 3.4% (Productive).
• *Note:* The current ATR of 3.4% sits within the "productive" structural quality range, indicating manageable volatility for position sizing without entering the "very high" or "extreme" risk buckets.

2. Thesis Layer

• Thesis Classification: TACTICAL / SETUP-LED.
• Macro Context: There is no named secular thesis attached to this specific setup as of 2026-06-13. The investment case is not driven by a broad, named macro narrative (e.g., "Global Energy Transition" or "Inflation Hedge") in the current context.
• Judgment Criteria: The conviction must be derived strictly from the quality of the technical setup (Coil structure) and the immediate business fundamentals disclosed in the most recent earnings and filings. Do not invent a macro thesis to justify the position.

3. Business Fundamentals

Excelerate Energy, Inc. operates as a worldwide supplier of versatile liquefied natural gas (LNG) solutions, specializing in floating regasification units (FSRUs) and LNG terminal operations.

Operational Status & Asset Base (as of Q1/Q2 2026):

• Asset Count: As of March 31, 2026, the company controlled or operated 11 floating regasification terminals, one onshore regasification terminal, and a combined heat and power plant.
• Recent Deployment: In May 2026, the company executed a nine-month time charter party agreement with Jordan's National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) to deploy the *Acadia* to the LNG terminal in Aqaba. The *Acadia* is expected to commence operations in Jordan by mid-2026, generating roughly $20 million of adjusted EBITDA for the current year.
• New Capacity: The company took delivery of a new floating regasification terminal constructed by Hyundai Heavy Industries in South Korea in the second quarter of 2026. This asset is intended for a five-year regasification and LNG supply agreement with Iraq's Ministry of Electricity, expected to commence in Q3 2026.
• Geographic Footprint: The company is the largest provider of regasified LNG capacity in Argentina, Bangladesh, Finland, Jamaica, and the UAE. Contracts exist with customers in Bangladesh, Iraq, Jamaica, and the United States.

Financial Guidance & Contract Visibility:

• EBITDA Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026 is now expected to range between $480 million and $510 million.
• Capital Expenditures: Committed growth capital for 2026 is expected to range between $270 million and $300 million, reflecting a deferral of certain Iraq-related construction activity into 2027.
• Contracted Cash Flows: As of December 31, 2025, minimum contracted cash flows under terminal services contracts were approximately $3,315.2 million (weighted average remaining term: 5.8 years). Total minimum contracted cash flows under LNG, gas, and power contracts were approximately $17,031.2 million (weighted average remaining term: 9.3 years).
• Market Outlook: Management notes that while global LNG trade decreased to 116 million tonnes in Q1 2026 (vs. 119 MT in Q4 2025), the long-term outlook remains constructive with approximately 200 million tons of new LNG supply expected to come online by 2030, intensifying the need for regasification capacity.

Note on Delays: Management explicitly stated that the terminal previously expected to commence operations in Q3 2026 is now expected to start in 2027. This represents a specific operational deferral impacting the 2026 timeline for that specific asset.

4. Archetype and Conviction Stack

• Archetype: Cyclical Recovery.
• *Rationale:* The setup aligns with a cyclical recovery profile where the company is leveraging existing infrastructure to capture incremental demand (Jordan, Iraq) while managing capital cycles (deferral of Iraq construction). The business model relies on long-term contracts (9.3-year weighted average) which provides a floor for cash flows, typical of a recovery play in a capital-intensive sector.
• Valuation Context:
• Forward consensus EPS (FY1) is $1.53729.
• Forward consensus EPS (FY2) is $2.00545.
• The financial spine coverage is "complete," providing a baseline for valuation relative to the current price of $34.56.
• Conviction Stack:
• Thesis Strength: Low (Tactical only; no named macro thesis).
• Evidence Quality: High. Recent filings (May 2026) provide specific, quantified guidance on EBITDA, CapEx, and contract values.
• Structural Quality: High. The ATR is in the "productive" range (3.4%), and the contract backlog offers significant visibility ($17B+).
• Rerating Potential: Moderate. Dependent on the successful deployment of the *Acadia* in Jordan and the new Hyundai terminal in Iraq, offset by the delay in the Q3 '26 terminal.

5. Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

• Invalidation Triggers:
• A significant downgrade in the 2026 EBITDA guidance range (currently $480M-$510M) due to contract cancellations or force majeure events.
• Failure to commence the Jordan operations by mid-2026 as stated in the May 2026 transcript.
• Strengtheners:
• Execution of the Iraq agreement in Q3 2026 as planned.
• Confirmation of additional charter agreements beyond the Jordan deal.
• Earnings beat within the provided guidance range.
• Evidence Gaps:
• Specific Margin Breakdown: While EBITDA is guided, specific operating margin percentages for the new Jordan and Iraq contracts are not detailed in the provided evidence.
• Debt Service Coverage: No specific data on current debt service coverage ratios or interest rate exposure in the provided filings.
• Customer Concentration: While customer regions are listed, the revenue percentage breakdown by specific customer (e.g., NEPCO vs. others) is not quantified in the evidence.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Buy Confidence: medium Key risks: Deferral of terminal operations from Q3 '26 to 2027; potential for further construction delays in Iraq; lack of named macro thesis to support multiple expansion. Sizing hint: Standard position sizing for a confirmed active setup with productive ATR; avoid over-sizing given the tactical nature of the thesis. Expected path: Management executes the Jordan deployment in mid-2026 and the Iraq agreement in Q3 2026, maintaining EBITDA within the $480M-$510M guidance range while CapEx remains within the $270M-$300M band. Expected horizon: 6 to 12 months to realize the full impact of the new charter agreements and terminal deployments.