LLYVA

ANALYST NOTE: LLYVA (Liberty Live Group) Date: 2026-06-20 Analyst: StoryStocks-Native Equity Research

1. Structural Readiness

Current State: Forming

• Current Price: $94.94
• Aggressive Entry (Pre-Breakout): $82.16
• Breakout Level (Resistance): $99.63
• Extension: Not applicable (price is within the forming range, not extended above the breakout level).

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Classification: TACTICAL / SETUP-LED Macro Context: There is NO named secular thesis attached to this name as of 2026-06-20. The investment case is not driven by a specific macro theme (e.g., "AI Infrastructure" or "Green Energy Transition") but is strictly driven by the structural quality of the coil setup and the underlying business fundamentals of the Liberty Live Group. Judgment Criteria: Conviction must be derived solely from the setup quality (the forming coil structure) and the strength of the business evidence provided in the filings. Do not invent a macro narrative to support the trade.

3. Business Fundamentals

Company Overview: Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) is a holding company that beneficially owns approximately 69.6 million shares of Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), representing approximately 30% of the issued and outstanding shares as of December 31, 2025. The company also holds interests in private assets, corporate cash, and debt obligations. Core Business Model: The underlying asset, Live Nation, operates as the world's largest live entertainment company. Its model integrates three primary verticals:

• Concerts: The largest producer of live music concerts globally. In 2025, the Concerts business generated $20.9 billion, or 83% of total revenue, connecting 159 million fans to over 11,000 artists at 55,000 events.
• Ticketing: Operates Ticketmaster, the world's leading ticketing sales and marketing company, distributing 646 million tickets through its systems in 2025.
• Experiential (Quint): A reportable segment designing and selling official ticket-inclusive hospitality and experiential packages. Quint holds rights agreements with Formula 1, MotoGP, Churchill Downs, and the NBA.

Key Operational Evidence (as of 2026-06-20):

• Strategic Partnerships: F1 renewed its global partnership with Heineken and signed a landmark distribution deal with Apple in the U.S. to highlight innovation.
• Rights Renewals: The company renewed rights for Azerbaijan 2030, Monaco through 2035, and Austin through 2034.
• Financial Performance: Despite missing the Singapore race in the prior year period (which was not in the current period), F1 revenue was up 9% and adjusted OIBDA up 15% year-to-date through Q3 2025.
• Asset Base: Live Nation owns, operates, or has exclusive booking rights for 460 venues globally, including iconic locations like The Fillmore, Brooklyn Bowl, and the Ziggo Dome.
• Recent Corporate Action: Management expects to complete a split-off on December 15, 2025, with the stock expected to begin trading as a stand-alone asset-backed equity the following day.

4. Archetype and Conviction Stack

Archetype: Quality Compounder / Structural Holder The company fits the archetype of a Quality Compounder due to its dominant market position (largest in concerts, ticketing, and venues) and its ability to renew long-term rights (e.g., Monaco through 2035). It is not a deep value recovery or a cyclical recovery play in the traditional sense, but rather a holder of high-quality, cash-generating assets with a structural moat.

Conviction Stack Analysis:

• Thesis Strength: Low (Tactical only; no macro tailwind).
• Evidence Quality: High. The evidence base is robust, citing specific 2025 financials, 2026 event schedules, and management guidance on the split-off.
• Structural Quality: Moderate to High. The business has strong recurring revenue streams (venue bookings, ticketing fees) and long-term rights renewals. However, the 2026 calendar shows specific disruptions: the Iran conflict caused the cancellation of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix, and the Qatar Grand Prix was postponed to November 2026. Management explicitly states these events will have an "adverse impact on Quint's results of operations in 2026."
• Setup Readiness: Partial. The forming coil indicates accumulation and support, but the breakout at $99.63 has not occurred. The current price ($94.94) is roughly 4.8% below the breakout level.
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the successful execution of the stand-alone split-off and the recovery of the F1/MotoGP calendar disruptions.

Volatility Context:

• Current ATR: 3.3% (Productive). This sits within the "productive" range, suggesting manageable volatility for position sizing.
• ATR at Breakout: Not yet established (structural quality to be confirmed upon breakout).

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Invalidate:

• Fundamental: A significant deterioration in the Live Nation underlying business that threatens the value of the 30% stake, or a failure to execute the planned split-off.

What Would Strengthen:

• Technical: A decisive close above $99.63 (the breakout level), confirming the coil and transitioning the setup to "Confirmed-Active."
• Fundamental: Confirmation that the F1/MotoGP calendar disruptions are fully resolved or that the "Apple partnership" drives material new revenue streams for F1 beyond the 9% growth already reported.

Evidence Gaps:

• Post-Split-Off Financials: While the split-off was expected to complete in December 2025, there is no specific evidence in the provided block regarding the *stand-alone* financial performance or capital structure of LLYVA *after* the split-off in 2026. The evidence relies heavily on the consolidated Live Nation data.
• 2026 Full-Year Guidance: The evidence cites Q3 2025 performance and specific 2026 event cancellations, but lacks a full-year 2026 earnings guidance or consensus estimate for the stand-alone entity.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key risks: 1) Technical invalidation if price closes below $78.90; 2) Adverse operational impact on Quint segment from F1/MotoGP cancellations in Iran and Qatar due to geopolitical conflict; 3) Lack of named secular thesis; trade is purely setup-led. Sizing hint: Reduce size relative to confirmed breakouts due to forming status and wider stop distance; use ATR of 3.3% to calibrate position. Expected path: Price consolidates near current levels while awaiting a catalyst (e.g., post-split-off earnings or F1 calendar resolution) to push through $99.63 resistance. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the setup to resolve (breakout or invalidation). Failure mode to watch: A sustained close below $78.90, which would confirm the coil structure has failed and the setup is invalidated.