MIAX

Analyst Note: MIAX (Miami International Holdings, Inc.)

Date: 2026-06-20 Current Price: $37.65

1. Structural Readiness

• State: Forming.
• *Definition:* The setup is active in the sense that price is holding above the invalidation line, but the breakout has not fired. This represents a partial readiness signal.
• Conservative Entry: Not applicable (Breakout not fired).
• Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: Not actionable on its own; requires confirmation.
• Breakout Level: Not yet defined/fired.
• Current Price: $37.65.
• Extension: Not applicable (No breakout has occurred to measure extension from).
• ATR Context: Current ATR is 6.5% (Very High). This indicates elevated volatility, which increases the absolute dollar distance to the stop and requires careful position sizing.

2. Thesis Layer

• Thesis Classification: Tactical / Setup-Led.
• Macro Thesis: There is no named secular thesis attached to this name as of 2026-06-20.
• Judgment Framework: The investment case must be judged strictly on the quality of the technical setup (the forming coil) and the immediate business fundamentals (volume growth, product launches, and market share gains). Do not invent a macro narrative. The conviction relies on the execution of the product roadmap and the continuation of the volume trends observed in Q1 2026.

3. Business Analysis

• Company Overview: MIAX operates as a diversified financial services provider, running four fully automated electronic options exchanges (MIAX Options, MIAX Pearl, MIAX Emerald, MIAX Sapphire) and a U.S. equities exchange (MIAX Pearl Equities). It also operates futures and options on futures through MIAX Futures and holds international listings via BSX and TISE.
• Business Model: Revenue is generated primarily through transaction and clearing fees derived from trading volumes in listed equity options, futures, equity securities, and ETFs.
• Key Fundamentals (as of 2026-06-20):
• Revenue Growth: Total revenues reached $369.69 million (Q1 2026), up from $327.08 million in the prior year period. Transaction and clearing fees were $315.41 million, up from $289.30 million.
• Volume Trends: Trading in multi-listed U.S. options on MIAX exchanges totaled 2.4 billion contracts in 2025, a 41.1% increase from 2024. Average daily volume (ADV) in U.S. options on MIAX exchanges was 9.5 million contracts in 2025, up from 6.7 million in 2024.
• Market Share: MIAX captured 17.3% of multi-listed options market share in Q1 2026, up from 16% in the prior year. In specific high-growth classes, market share ranges between 18% and 20%.
• Product Pipeline & Launches: Management confirmed the launch of a retail size contract based on the Bloomberg 100 Equity Index on May 17, 2026. Subsequent listings included the B500 TEB contract on June 1, 2026, and the B500 big contract on June 8, 2026.
• Capital Structure: In August 2025, the company raised $396.8 million in gross proceeds via an IPO. Additionally, the sale of MIAXdx resulted in a $50.5 million gain recognized in January 2026.
• Guidance: Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance of $265 million to $275 million.

4. Archetype and Conviction

• Archetype: Growth Leader / Margin Inflector.
• *Rationale:* The company demonstrates high-growth characteristics with a 41.1% increase in multi-listed option volume and a 17% year-over-year increase in industry ADV (driven by new short-term expirations). The business model benefits from scale as transaction fees grow faster than the reaffirmed operating expense guidance, suggesting margin expansion.
• Valuation Context: While specific P/E or EV/EBITDA multiples are not provided in the evidence, the revenue growth ($369.69M vs $327.08M) and the successful capital raise ($396.8M) suggest a market that is pricing in significant growth. The $50.5M one-time gain from the MIAXdx sale provides a non-recurring boost to earnings, but the core operational growth is the primary driver.
• Conviction Stack:
• *Thesis Strength:* Low (No named macro thesis; purely tactical).
• *Evidence Quality:* High (Strong volume data, clear product launch dates, specific market share gains).
• *Structural Quality:* Moderate (ATR of 6.5% is "Very High," indicating volatility risk; setup is "Forming" rather than "Confirmed").
• *Rerating Potential:* Moderate to High, contingent on the successful adoption of the new Bloomberg products and sustained volume growth.

5. Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

• Strengtheners: A confirmed breakout above the resistance level (firing the coil) would confirm the setup. Continued market share gains above 18-20% in the specific classes mentioned, or higher-than-expected volume on the newly launched Bloomberg contracts, would strengthen the case.
• Evidence Gaps:
• Specific Price Targets: No explicit price targets or valuation multiples are provided in the filings.
• Detailed Product Adoption: While launch dates are known, the actual trading volume or adoption rates of the new Bloomberg contracts (launched May/June 2026) are not yet quantified in the Q1 earnings or March filing.
• Profitability Metrics: Adjusted operating expense guidance is provided, but specific net income or EPS figures for 2026 are not detailed in the provided evidence.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: 41.1% YoY increase in multi-listed option volume in 2025; 17.3% market share in multi-listed options in Q1 2026; successful launch of new Bloomberg products in May/June 2026; strong revenue growth to $369.69M. Key risks: Very high ATR (6.5%) indicating elevated volatility and potential for sharp drawdowns; setup is "Forming" rather than "Confirmed" (breakout not fired); lack of named secular thesis; reliance on new product adoption for future growth. Sizing hint: Reduce position size relative to historical norms due to "Very High" ATR and unconfirmed breakout status. Expected path: Management expects continued volume growth driven by new product listings and geopolitical volatility; structural implication is that if the breakout fires, the setup moves to "Confirmed-Active" with potential for further expansion. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the setup to resolve (breakout or invalidation).