OLN

ANALYST NOTE: Olin Corporation (OLN) Date: 2026-06-13 Event Date: 2026-06-13

1. Structural Readiness

Family: Coil State: Context-Only / Forming Conservative Entry: $27.59 Current Price: $22.01 Extension: -20.2% vs. conservative entry Breakout Level: $27.59 (Conservative) / $22.01 (Current Price) ATR at Breakout: 6.3% (Very High) Current ATR: 6.0% (High) Pivot Strength: Swing Cap Bucket: Mid

Setup Classification: FORMING

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: TACTICAL / SETUP-LED As of 2026-06-13, there is no named secular thesis attached to this setup. This is not a macro-driven thematic play (e.g., "Green Hydrogen Boom" or "Defense Spending Surge" as a primary driver). The conviction must be derived strictly from the quality of the structural setup (the Coil formation) and the immediate business fundamentals disclosed in the most recent earnings and filings. We are judging this name on its ability to execute its turnaround and pricing power, not on a pre-existing macro narrative.

3. Business Overview

Olin Corporation is a vertically integrated global manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and a leading U.S. manufacturer of ammunition. As of the latest filings (2026-02-20) and earnings transcript (2026-05-08), the company operates through three distinct segments:

• Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of 2025 sales): This segment manufactures and sells chlorine, caustic soda, ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and various chlorinated organic intermediates and solvents.
• *Recent Performance:* The segment reported a loss of $(44.5) million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, a significant deterioration from the $78.3 million income reported in the same period in 2025.
• *Management Expectations:* Management expects to deliver second-quarter adjusted EBITDA in the range of $160 million to $200 million, citing a "significant sequential improvement."
• *Pricing Power:* The company announced a total of $185 per ton in domestic caustic soda price increases for implementation in 2026. Additionally, March and April epoxy resin price increases totaling more than $1,200 per ton in North America and €1,300 per metric ton in Europe were implemented.
• *Strategic Deals:* A long-term supply deal with Braskem for EDC supply was announced in November 2025, aligning with Braskem's asset transformation in Brazil.

• Epoxy (20% of 2025 sales): Produces aromatics (acetone, phenol), epichlorohydrin, and liquid/solid epoxy resins. The segment serves applications in electronics, semiconductors, power generation, wind energy, and civil engineering.
• *Strategic Focus:* Management describes the formulated solutions portfolio as a "high-margin platform for growth" with a strategic focus on electronics and semiconductors.

• Winchester (26% of 2025 sales): Produces sporting ammunition, reloading components, small caliber military ammunition, and industrial cartridges.
• *Recent Activity:* On April 18, 2025, Olin acquired AMMO, Inc.'s small caliber ammunition manufacturing assets for $55.8 million.
• *Backlog:* The segment signed a four-year contract with Canadian Border Services and Canadian Corrections for 9mm duty ammunition in 2025.
• *Backlog Visibility:* As of January 31, 2026, the total estimated backlog was approximately $1,331 million. Approximately 81% of this contracted backlog is expected to be fulfilled during 2026, with the remainder in 2027.

4. Archetype and Conviction Analysis

Archetype: Structurally Broken / Cyclical Recovery The company fits the "Structurally Broken" archetype, evidenced by the segment loss in Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls in Q1 2026 and the announcement of additional restructuring charges of approximately $70.0 million through 2030. The setup is a classic "turnaround" play where the market is pricing in the bottom of the cycle, and the setup structure (Coil) is forming around the stabilization of these losses.

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Low (Tactical only, no macro tailwind).
• Evidence Quality: High. The evidence base is robust, with specific pricing actions ($185/ton caustic soda), clear backlog visibility ($1.33B), and defined restructuring paths ($70M).
• Structural Quality: The ATR at breakout (6.3%) is "Very High," indicating that when the setup eventually fires, the move will be volatile and significant. The current ATR (6.0%) is "High," suggesting active trading and potential for sharp moves.
• Rerating Potential: Moderate. The rerating depends on the successful execution of the Q2 EBITDA guidance ($160M-$200M) and the realization of the 2026 price increases. The backlog provides a floor for the Winchester segment, but the Chlor Alkali segment remains the primary variable.

Valuation Context: Forward consensus EPS for FY1 is $0.081 and FY2 is $0.89. The low FY1 EPS reflects the current cyclical trough and restructuring costs, while the FY2 projection implies a recovery. The current price of $22.01 appears to be pricing in a recovery, but the structural setup has not yet confirmed this with a breakout.

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Invalidate:

• A significant miss on the Q2 EBITDA guidance (below $160 million) or a failure to implement the announced price increases.

What Would Strengthen:

• A close above the conservative entry of $27.59, confirming the breakout.
• Confirmation of the $160M-$200M Q2 EBITDA range in the upcoming earnings release.
• Further expansion of the backlog or successful integration of the AMMO assets.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Missing Evidence: There is no specific evidence regarding the *current* cash flow position or the exact timing of the $70M restructuring charges beyond the "through 2030" horizon.
• Missing Evidence: No specific data on the *current* utilization rates of the Chlor Alkali plants as of June 2026, only the segment loss for Q1 2026.
• Missing Evidence: No explicit guidance on the *timing* of the 2028 long-term supply deal mentioned in the transcript.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key risks: Chlor Alkali segment loss of $44.5M in Q1 2026; $70M restructuring charges through 2030; Price below conservative entry; High ATR volatility. Sizing hint: Position size should be reduced due to the "Forming" state and lack of confirmed breakout; treat as a partial position until price clears $27.59. Expected path: Management expects sequential EBITDA improvement in Q2; price likely to consolidate near current levels while waiting for earnings confirmation before attempting a breakout. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the setup to resolve (breakout or invalidation).