PARR

ANALYST NOTE: PARR (Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.) Date: 2026-06-13 Current Price: $50.89

1. Structural Readiness

State: Forming Conservative Entry: — (Awaiting confirmed breakout) Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: — (Not actionable on setup alone; requires confirmation) Breakout Level: — (Pending price action above current consolidation) Current Price: $50.89 Extension: — (No confirmed breakout extension recorded) ATR Context: Current ATR is 5.6% (High). This places the stock in the historical "sweet spot" for volatility (4–6%), suggesting sufficient momentum for a move but requiring careful position sizing to account for the "High" volatility bucket.

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: TACTICAL / Setup-Led Macro Thesis: None named at this date. Analysis: This is not a secular-theme play driven by a specific long-term macro narrative (e.g., "Green Energy Transition" or "Global Supply Collapse") in the StoryStocks framework. The investment case is strictly setup-led, relying on the quality of the technical structure (the forming coil) combined with immediate business fundamentals. The conviction must be derived from the operational inflection points and margin expansion recorded in the Q1 2026 earnings, rather than a broad macro thesis.

3. Business Overview

Company Profile: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is a growing energy company headquartered in Houston, Texas, providing both renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States. Business Model: The company operates an integrated model across three primary segments:

• Refining: Owns and operates four refineries with a total crude oil throughput capacity of 219 Mbpd. The segment produces ultra-low sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, distillates, asphalt, and low sulfur fuel oil.
• Retail: Manages 119 fuel and convenience store locations under banners including Hele, 76, and nomnom, primarily in Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho.
• Logistics: Operates an extensive network including terminals, pipelines, a single point mooring system, trucking services, and storage facilities across Oahu, Maui, Hawaii, Molokai, Kauai, Wyoming, and South Dakota.

Operational Evidence (as of 2026-06-13):

• Throughput Records: In Q1 2026, facilities set a first-quarter throughput record. Hawaii specifically processed a record 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) with production costs of $4.67 per barrel.
• Renewables Milestone: The company achieved a major milestone with the successful start-up of the Hawaii Renewables Unit.
• Operational Recovery: The Wyoming refinery, which experienced an incident in February 2025, returned to full crude operations in late April 2025 and has been running well since.
• Financial Performance: For the three months ended March 31, 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was $91.5 million, a significant increase from $10.1 million in the prior year period. Refining Adjusted Gross Margin rose to $185.1 million (up $80.8 million YoY).
• Market Context: Management noted that the April Singapore 3-1-2 index averaged over $72 per barrel (vs. $16 in 2025), and Brent crude averaged $99.60 in March. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 have disrupted global trade, increasing crude oil price volatility and upward pressure on prices.
• Forward Guidance: Management expects Hawaii throughput to range between 77,000 and 81,000 bpd in Q2 2026 due to a planned turnaround (late June to late July). Renewables sales volumes and earnings contribution are expected to be modest in Q2, with a more meaningful ramp in the back half of the year.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Margin Inflector Rationale: The name fits the "Margin Inflector" archetype due to the sharp expansion in Adjusted Gross Margin ($185.1M vs $104.3M YoY) and EBITDA ($91.5M vs $10.1M YoY) driven by favorable market cracks, higher crude prices, and operational recovery. The successful start-up of the Hawaii Renewables Unit and the return of the Wyoming refinery to full capacity are the specific inflection points driving this margin expansion.

Valuation & Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Moderate. The thesis is tactical and operational, not macro-driven.
• Evidence Quality: High. The evidence base is robust, citing specific earnings transcripts and SEC filings from May 2026 with strong consensus scores (0.6–0.7).
• Structural Quality: The ATR of 5.6% indicates a healthy volatility environment for a setup, avoiding the "extreme" (>8%) risk zone while providing enough movement for a breakout.
• Setup Readiness: The setup is Forming. The price is holding above support, but the breakout has not fired. This is a positive signal but incomplete.
• Rerating Potential: The rerating potential is tied to the successful execution of the Hawaii turnaround and the ramp-up of the renewables unit in H2 2026. Management expects modest renewables contribution in Q2, suggesting the full rerating may occur later in the year.

Financial Spine: Forward consensus EPS for FY1 is 12.59597 and FY2 is 9.43847. The coverage is "complete," providing a baseline for valuation assessment.

5. Invalidation, Strengthening, and Gaps

What Would Invalidate:

• A significant delay or failure in the Hawaii turnaround (currently scheduled for late June to late July 2026).
• A sharp deterioration in the Singapore 3-1-2 index or Brent crude prices below the levels cited in Q1 2026.

What Would Strengthen:

• A confirmed breakout above the current consolidation range (price action > $50.89 with volume).
• Confirmation that the Hawaii Renewables Unit ramp-up is accelerating ahead of the "back half of the year" guidance.
• Sustained throughput above the Q2 guidance range of 77,000–81,000 bpd for Hawaii.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Q2 Earnings Data: While guidance is provided, actual Q2 2026 financial results are not yet available as of the event date (June 13, 2026), as the quarter is ongoing.
• Renewables Unit Economics: While the start-up is confirmed, specific earnings contribution figures for the renewables unit are not yet detailed beyond "modest" in Q2.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA surged to $91.5M from $10.1M YoY; Hawaii throughput hit record 90,000 bpd with $4.67/bbl costs; Successful start-up of Hawaii Renewables Unit confirmed. Key risks: Hawaii turnaround scheduled for late June may cause Q2 throughput dip; Geopolitical volatility in Strait of Hormuz could disrupt supply chains; Renewables ramp-up delayed beyond H2 2026 expectations. Sizing hint: Position size should reflect the "Forming" status and "High" ATR; avoid full allocation until breakout confirmation. Expected path: Management expects Hawaii throughput to moderate to 77k-81k bpd in Q2 due to turnaround, with renewables ramping in H2; price likely to consolidate until turnaround completes and renewables contribution becomes material. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months (through Q2 turnaround and into H2 ramp-up).