RJF

Analyst Note: RJF (Raymond James Financial, Inc.)

Date: 2026-06-20 Current Price: $155.86

1. Structural Readiness

• Conservative Entry: Not actionable yet. A conservative entry requires a confirmed breakout above the resistance level defined by the forming coil.
• Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: Not recommended as a standalone signal; the setup is incomplete.
• Breakout Level: Not yet established in the data.
• Current Price: $155.86.
• Extension: Not applicable (price has not broken out to extend).

2. Thesis Layer

• Thesis Classification: Tactical, Setup-Led.
• Macro Thesis: There is no named secular thesis attached to this name as of 2026-06-20. The investment case is not driven by a specific macro narrative (e.g., "rate cut beneficiary" or "inflation hedge") but is instead judged on the quality of the technical setup and the underlying business fundamentals.
• Conviction Weighting: Conviction is derived solely from the strength of the business execution (evidenced by the Q2 2026 results) and the structural readiness of the setup, rather than a macro tailwind.

3. The Business

Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a leading diversified financial services firm providing private client group (PCG), capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities.

• Revenue & Growth: As of the Q2 2026 earnings call (2026-04-22), the company reported record quarterly revenues of $3.86 billion, representing 13% growth year-over-year and 3% growth sequentially.
• Asset Accumulation:
• Domestic Net New Assets (NNA): $23 billion in Q2 2026, a 5.8% annualized growth rate.
• Advisor Recruitment: Trailing 12-month production from recruited advisers totaled $141 million, representing nearly $21 billion of client assets at their previous firms. This was the second-highest quarterly result in history for both metrics.
• Private Client Group (PCG): Ended the quarter with $1.7 trillion of client assets under administration (AUA), up 15% year-over-year.
• Banking Segment:
• Loans: Ended the quarter at a record $54.8 billion, driven by a 31% year-over-year increase in securities-based lending (SBL) balances.
• Deposits: Total bank deposits reached $62.4 billion (as of March 31, 2026), up from $58.9 billion in the prior period.
• Capital & Returns:
• Repurchases: The company repurchased $800 million of common stock at an average price of $158 per share during the quarter.
• Capital Ratios: As of March 31, 2026, the Tier 1 leverage ratio was 12.4% and the total capital ratio was 24.0%, both well above regulatory requirements.
• Management Expectations: Management expects fiscal Q3 2026 asset management and related administrative fees to be higher by approximately 1% over Q2 levels, driven by an additional billing day and slightly higher PCG asset balances.

4. Archetype and Conviction

• Archetype: Quality Compounder.
• *Fit:* The company demonstrates consistent, high-quality growth in assets under administration ($1.7T PCG AUA), record revenue generation, and disciplined capital allocation (share buybacks). The business model is human-capital intensive, relying on a large network of 8,943 advisors (as of Sept 2025) to drive organic growth.
• Valuation & Fundamentals: The financial spine is robust. The bank segment is growing rapidly (SBL up 31%), and the fee-based AUA is expanding (15% YoY). The capital ratios (24.0% total capital) provide a significant buffer against market volatility.
• Conviction Stack:
• Thesis Strength: Moderate (Tactical/Setup-led, no macro tailwind).
• Evidence Quality: High. Multiple primary sources (earnings transcripts, 10-Q/10-K filings) confirm record metrics.
• Structural Quality: High. The business is executing on a long-term strategy with record NNA and revenue.
• Setup Readiness: Partial. The coil is "forming." The price is holding above support, but the breakout has not fired. The sub-threshold ATR (2.3%) suggests the market is currently digesting the recent gains rather than accelerating.
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the confirmation of the breakout. The fundamental strength supports a rerating, but the technical setup requires a catalyst (breakout) to confirm the move.

5. Invalidations, Strengthening, and Gaps

• Strengthening: A confirmed breakout above the resistance level of the forming coil, accompanied by higher-than-average volume, would confirm the setup. Continued strong NNA and advisor recruitment in subsequent quarters would further validate the "Quality Compounder" archetype.
• Gaps in Evidence:
• Breakout Confirmation: There is no data confirming a breakout has occurred; the setup is explicitly "forming."
• Macro Context: No specific macro thesis is provided to contextualize the "Tactical" nature of the trade.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Hold Confidence: medium Key evidence: Record Q2 revenue of $3.86B (13% YoY growth); $23B domestic net new assets (5.8% annualized); Bank loans at record $54.8B with 31% YoY SBL growth; Strong capital ratios (24.0% total capital). Key risks: Setup is "forming" with no breakout fired; Current ATR (2.3%) is sub-threshold indicating low volatility momentum; No named secular thesis to provide macro tailwinds; Heavy reliance on equity market direction for asset management fees. Sizing hint: Position size should be conservative until the breakout fires; the setup is not yet actionable on a conservative basis. Expected path: Management expects Q3 fees to rise ~1% due to billing days and asset growth; the stock likely consolidates or grinds higher as the coil structure matures, awaiting a volume-driven breakout to confirm the next leg. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the coil to resolve (breakout or invalidation).