SSRM

ANALYST NOTE: SSR MINING INC. (SSRM) DATE: 2026-06-20 SETUP: COIL (CONFIRMED-ACTIVE)

1. Structural Readiness

• Conservative Entry: $26.26
• Current Price: $30.95
• Extension: +17.9% above the conservative entry.
• Breakout Level: The breakout occurred at the conservative entry of $26.26.
• Volatility Context: The ATR at the time of the breakout was 5.3% (High), indicating strong structural quality at the entry. The current ATR is 6.1% (Very High), suggesting elevated volatility and larger position sizing considerations for risk management.
• Pivot Strength: Swing.
• Cap Bucket: Mid.

2. Thesis Layer

As of 2026-06-20, there is no named secular thesis attached to this setup. This is a TACTICAL, setup-led name. The conviction must be derived strictly from the quality of the technical structure (the confirmed coil) and the immediate business fundamentals disclosed in the most recent reporting periods. No macroeconomic or sector-wide secular themes are being applied to weight this trade; the analysis relies on the setup's ability to capture value based on the company's operational execution and capital allocation.

3. Business Overview

SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals mining company operating four primary assets across the United States, Canada, and Argentina. The company produces gold doré as well as copper, silver, lead, and zinc concentrates.

Operational Highlights (as of Q1 2026):

• Production: In the first quarter of 2026, the company produced 110,000 gold equivalent ounces (AuEq) with an All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $2,433 per ounce, which management noted was "well aligned with expectations."
• Revenue Mix: For the year ended December 31, 2025, gold doré represented approximately 71% of total revenue. The remaining revenue was derived from silver, lead, and zinc concentrates.
• Segment Contribution: The revenue contribution by reportable segment for 2025 was:
• Marigold: 33%
• CC&V (Cerro Casale & Veladero): 28%
• Puna: 28%
• Seabee: 11%
• Çöpler: 0% (Note: This reflects the divestiture timeline; in 2024, Çöpler contributed 7%, and in 2023, 31%).

Capital Allocation & Liquidity:

• Cash Position: As of March 31, 2026, the company held $634.1 million in cash and cash equivalents with no outstanding borrowings under its Second Amended Credit Agreement.
• Debt Conversion: During the three months ended March 31, 2026, holders of $229.8 million aggregate principal amount of the 2019 Notes elected to convert their holdings into approximately 13.1 million common shares.
• Divestiture Progress: On March 24, 2026, the company entered a definitive agreement to sell its 80% interest in the Çöpler mine in Türkiye to Cengiz Holding for $1.5 billion in cash. Management expects this transaction to close before the end of the third quarter of 2026, subject to Turkish regulatory approvals.

Cost Sensitivity: Management has highlighted a direct correlation between energy costs and production costs: "For every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices, it translates to approximately $7 to $10 per ounce increase in our consolidated AISC."

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Cyclical Recovery / Margin Inflector. The setup fits the Cyclical Recovery archetype, driven by a significant balance sheet inflection event (the Çöpler divestiture) and operational optimization. The company is transitioning from a multi-asset producer with a complex Turkish exposure to a streamlined portfolio of high-margin assets (Marigold, Puna, CC&V, Seabee).

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Moderate. The thesis is not macro-driven but is supported by a clear, near-term catalyst (the $1.5B cash infusion from Çöpler) and strong Q1 2026 operational execution.
• Evidence Quality: High. The evidence base is robust, relying on primary earnings transcripts and SEC filings from May 2026 and February 2026. The data points to a clean balance sheet ($634M cash, zero debt) and a clear path to deleveraging or capital return.
• Structural Quality: High. The ATR at breakout (5.3%) falls within the "High" canonical bucket (4–6%), which is historically the sweet spot for structural setups. The current ATR (6.1%) is "Very High," indicating active market participation but requiring careful position sizing.
• Rerating Potential: Significant. The removal of the Çöpler asset (which had regulatory uncertainty and lower contribution in 2025) and the receipt of $1.5 billion in cash should materially improve the company's risk profile and free cash flow generation, potentially leading to a multiple expansion if the market re-rates the company as a "pure-play" precious metals operator.

5. Invalidation, Strengthening, and Gaps

Invalidation Triggers:

• Fundamental: Failure of the Çöpler transaction to close by the end of Q3 2026 due to regulatory rejection, or a significant deterioration in AISC that pushes costs well above the $2,433/oz guidance.

Strengthening Factors:

• Technical: A sustained move higher with volume, confirming the "active" status and potentially targeting the next structural resistance.
• Fundamental: Confirmation of the Çöpler closing conditions and the subsequent deployment of the $1.5 billion cash into high-return growth projects (e.g., the Buffalo Valley opportunity at Marigold mentioned in guidance) or shareholder returns.
• Operational: Continued production alignment with expectations and AISC stability despite oil price fluctuations.

Evidence Gaps:

• Post-Transaction Impact: While the sale is expected to close in Q3 2026, the specific impact on the full-year 2026 guidance and the updated Life of Mine (LoM) plan for Marigold (expected within 12 months) has not yet been fully quantified in the provided evidence.
• Oil Price Sensitivity: The evidence notes a sensitivity of $7–$10/oz per $10/barrel oil increase, but current oil prices and their specific impact on the Q2/Q3 2026 AISC are not explicitly detailed in the provided snippets.
• Silver/Lead/Zinc Pricing: While Q1 2026 sales volumes and average prices are provided, the forward outlook for base metal prices (silver, lead, zinc) which contribute to the remaining 29% of revenue is not explicitly forecasted in the evidence.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Buy Confidence: medium Key evidence: Confirmed active coil structure with price holding 17.9% above entry; $1.5 billion cash divestiture from Çöpler expected to close Q3 2026; strong balance sheet with $634.1M cash and zero debt. Key risks: Turkish regulatory approval delays for Çöpler sale; oil price spikes increasing AISC by $7–$10/oz per $10/barrel; base metal price volatility affecting non-gold revenue. Sizing hint: Moderate position size given very high current ATR (6.1%) and 17.9% extension; reduce size if volatility spikes further. Expected path: Management expects Çöpler sale to close Q3 2026, followed by updated LoM plan for Marigold incorporating Buffalo Valley; cash deployment or balance sheet optimization likely follows. Expected horizon: 6 to 12 months for the divestiture and strategic update to fully price in.